Americans cool as activists cry wolf over global warming

If you weren't there, you probably didn't hear much about this week's second International Conference on Climate Change, hosted by the Heartland Institute and cosponsored by 60 organizations, with scientists, economists and policy experts in New York to confront the subject of global warming. So you wouldn't have heard that global warming is as uncertain as those who would fix it.

You probably have heard, however, about the predicted global warming-related calamities, including rising seas, tropical disease epidemics, species extinction, increasing hurricanes, devastating forest fires and declining agriculture. California's greenery and agriculture "could all be gone by the end of this century" as a result of melting of snowpack on our western mountains, according to U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu. Columbia University's Earth Institute recently warned, "The United States could suffer the effects of abrupt climate changes within decades." "Experts" tell us a "tipping point" is near, beyond which we won't be able to control the warming.

One would think that after two decades, the dire predictions would get old. The New York Times, for example, has averaged 21 stories per year on the subject since 1989; that peaked at 62 in 1997. The persistent publicity may be why so many Americans believe they know about the "problem." According to ABC News, 58 percent feel moderately well-informed about global warming, up about 15 points from earlier polls. Between 70 percent and 80 percent of those polled believe the world is warming. In a 2007 Associated Press-Stanford University poll, 79 percent thought it would be a somewhat serious or very serious problem for the world.

Numerous environmental organizations have reorganized themselves around this perceived danger. The Natural Resources Defense Council calls global warming "the biggest environmental issue of our time;" the World Wildlife Fund declares, "The common denominator in everything we do is climate change."

Given the "tipping point" of climate is upon us, activists propose surprisingly timid remedies. The National Wildlife Federation suggests: "Change the filter in your furnace;" "Change to fluorescent light bulbs" and, "Check your car's tire pressure." The Sierra Club's first recommendation? "A well-tuned car with properly inflated tires burns less gasoline - cutting pollution and saving you money at the pump. If you have two cars, drive the one with better gas mileage whenever possible."

It's like going into modern battle with a slingshot. Why the gap between the calamitous warnings and the recommended response? Is it a lack of belief or a lack of commitment?

Citizens apparently don't really buy it. Despite warnings since before 1990, poll responses and lifestyle responses don't match. Since 1990, Americans have built bigger houses (by 20 percent), bought second homes and use 28 percent more residential energy. Over half of occupied houses in 2007 had six rooms or more; 60 percent of households had two people or less. Even fluorescent bulbs can't overcome such energy "inefficiencies."

As for greenhouse gases, people are emitting more carbon dioxide in travel, for both work and pleasure. Airline passenger and freight tonnage has about doubled since 1990. Cruise ship voyages reached record numbers in 2007 in some places. Nearly 1,000 restaurants in this country now have fly-in (not drive-in) customers.

U.S. gasoline use is up 24 percent since 1990 and total carbon dioxide emissions up by a similar amount. World emissions are up over 30 percent even though 180 countries, in signing the Kyoto Treaty, agreed to reduce emissions to 5 percent below 1990 levels (which had already prompted predictions of catastrophe). Making matters worse, a report at the American Association for the Advancement of Science 2009 meeting, was that carbon dioxide concentrations rose about three times as fast since 2000 as in the 1990s.

There are 25 percent more registered vehicles in the United States than licensed drivers, and each vehicle runs an average of 12,000 miles per year. Large new stadiums, shopping centers and amusement parks are going up. "Global warming" alarmists should be alarmed enough to demand double the Kyoto reductions, now! The predictions of impending devastation ought to galvanize governments worldwide to prevent it. But it has not. Why?

Because "The surgery was a success, but the patient died." The "crisis" was created but the "solutions" fail. Where is the urgency for averting global warming? Lost in the more urgent of global challenges, as it should be.

Overuse of pesticides causes pests to become immune to them. Continual gloomy predictions affect people that way. Americans have differing perceptions, understanding and feelings about global warming. But on one point they agree: The problem is not serious. They have been immunized.

University of Georgia Professor Emeritus R. Harold Brown is an Adjunct Scholar with the Georgia Public Policy Foundation and author of "The Greening of Georgia: The Improvement of the Environment in the Twentieth Century." The Georgia Public Policy Foundation is an independent think tank that proposes practical, market-oriented approaches to public policy to improve the lives of Georgians. Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of the Georgia Public Policy Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before the U.S. Congress or the Georgia Legislature. This commentary is part of the Foundation's Climate Change Education Project.

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