By Aaron Gould Sheinin, Cameron McWhirter and Steve Visser The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Dalton Daily Citizen
DALTON —
Two candidates, three challenges and 16 days.
That is the story of the Aug. 10 Republican runoff for governor.
Now, Karen Handel and Nathan Deal, the survivors of last week’s primary, will scramble and the one who best responds to the following will meet Democrat Roy Barnes in November.
Challenge 1: Recruit the vanquished.
Challenge 2: Get their own primary voters back to the polls.
Challenge 3: Raise the money necessary to help accomplish the first two.
How the candidates will work to accomplish those challenges isn’t difficult to figure out, although the campaigns are mostly hush-hush on strategy.
“It’s fairly simple,” said Dan McLagan, spokesman for Handel’s campaign. “We’re going to travel a lot and talk to a lot of people and do the things that campaigns do, mail and TV and phone calls and personal appeals.”
The details, however, are where tactics are found.
What’s clear is that Deal and Handel are likely to focus on the nearly 60 counties where other candidates finished first in the primary, areas where each hopes to grow their vote totals. They have already begun courting supporters of Eric Johnson and John Oxendine, who came in third and fourth, respectively, in the primary.
They are also likely to stick to the messages that got them into the runoff.
Handel is a fiscal conservative, appealing to metro Atlanta and urban folk who made up big chunk of primary voters. She dominated metro Atlanta, where the highest concentration of voters live.
Deal is billing himself as the “true conservative” candidate, a label that implies strong views on issues such as gay rights, abortion and immigration — hot-button topics that often motivate voters to show up for runoffs.
Unknown is whether the biggest names backing each candidate show up to help out.
Handel certainly would get a huge boost from a personal appearance by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Palin, the 2008 GOP nominee for vice president, is an acknowledged force in driving voter turnout.
She endorsed Handel on July 12 but has yet to commit to visiting the state on Handel’s behalf.
Deal, meanwhile, has an endorsement from former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich and is putting together a coalition of prominent conservative women, including state Speaker Pro Tem Jan Jones (R-Alpharetta), former Georgia Christian Alliance chairwoman Sadie Fields and Tricia Pridemore, who heads a local conservative group, the 9.12 Project, to stump for him.
Deal appears to be the most likely recipient of a post-primary endorsement from third-place finisher Johnson, according to people close to the Deal and Handel campaigns.
“We have reached out to him and we will reach out to his biggest supporters,” Deal spokesman Brian Robinson said. “We would love to have his vote in his runoff. We share a lot of the same base.”
The two have spoken several times, including on election night. Robinson said Deal has also met with Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, who finished fourth.
“We want the votes of everybody who voted for Eric Johnson and John Oxendine,” Robinson said.
Handel, too, has reached out to Johnson and Oxendine, but might have a hard time winning either of them over. During the primary, she lumped the three men — Deal, Johnson and Oxendine — together as having questionable ethics and slammed them as part of a “good old boy network.”
Handel, however, has scored some key supporters from Johnson’s campaign.
Those coming to her side include heavy-hitters in Republican fund raising, such as Nancy Coverdell, widow of former U.S. Sen. Paul Coverdell, and Jamie Reynolds, whose family are GOP stalwarts and own the Reynolds Plantation on Lake Oconee .
“We signed on a lot of folks that came from Eric Johnson’s campaign,” said Eric Tanenblatt, Handel’s finance chairman, and former chief of staff to Gov. Sonny Perdue. “It clearly demonstrates that the momentum is following Karen.”
As for money, both candidates began the runoff campaign fairly broke.
Handel raised about $1.8 million and had $667,000 on hand by June 30. Deal had raised more than $2.5 million, and had $642,000 on hand as of June 30. By primary night, both campaigns likely had little reserve.
An analysis by The Associated Press last week showed that Handel had previously raised just $66,648 in money specifically designated for the primary runoff. Deal had $43,590.
With their primary victories, both candidates can now raise more money, up to $3,600 per donation, including from many donors who previously had given to other candidates. Both are reaching out to Johnson and Oxendine’s many donors. Expect to see Handel use her Palin endorsement to raise cash from beyond Georgia, while Deal may use former contacts in Congress to bring in out-of-state money. Whatever they raised in the next few weeks won’t be made public until a few days before runoff on Aug. 10.
Both Handel and Deal say the contributions are pouring in.
Handel begins the runoff campaign as the front-runner, if for no other reason than the fact that she took 75,000 more votes than Deal in the primary.
Still, Deal likes his chances.
One reason is the 9th Congressional District. A runoff there will be held on the same day as the gubernatorial runoff and Deal represented the 9th District for nearly 18 years. Deal beat Handel almost 2-to-1 in the counties of the 9th District.
But there is also a runoff in the 7th District, and Handel took 10,000 more votes than Deal in those counties.
Robinson also believes they have an edge in pulling social conservatives and rural voters to their side.
Jay Roberts, the chairman of the state House Transportation Committee from Ocilla in south Georgia, had endorsed Johnson in the primary. Now, he said, he’s backing Deal.
“Nathan seems to resonate more with the values and concerns that we have, given that he’s represented a somewhat rural part of the state in Congress,” Roberts said. “If you look at the two candidates, in my opinion Nathan is the one who understands our issues.”
But McLagan pointed out that Handel finished first or second in 133 of 159 counties, including runner-up finishes in many rural counties.
“Nathan is sort of a regional candidate,” McLagan said. “Karen had strength all over the place. Deal has a lot of ground to make up,”
All of this is aimed at picking up the votes of people like Bob and Jerry Justus.
The retired couple both voted for Johnson in the primary. Having lunch at Matthews Cafeteria in Tucker on Thursday, the retired couple said they will vote for Deal in the runoff.
They think Handel was too close to an organization for gay Republicans and questioned whether she was firmly against abortion. Deal was their congressman when they moved to Hall County.
“We know more about him,” said Jerry Justus.
But, up the road at the Rexall drugstore in Duluth, clerk Ann Condra took a different view. She had supported Handel in the primary and now Condra, 61, is standing firm on gender.
“I was torn between Handel and Deal and I voted for Handel,” she said. “It is time we had a woman governor.”
In the end, both are going to need any advantage they can find to win. Much is on the line and much could still change before Aug. 10 — especially voters’ minds.
Just ask Paula Costello.
Costello, 50 of Sandy Springs, voted for Handel in the primary in part because she was impressed with Handel as a “go-getter.”
She said she expected she would vote for her again but is interested in what Deal has to say.
“I am going to listen to Mr. Deal because I didn’t know much about him and my mind can be changed,” she said.
Costello said she was impressed with Palin’s endorsement of Handel and by Gingrich’s endorsement of Deal. She wondered if Handel is socially conservative enough, although she said right now she is more concerned that the next governor be fiscally conservative.
“I am a conservative,” she said. “But Newt Gingrich backed the other guy and I really like Newt Gingrich.”
