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January 5, 2012

Local observers say GOP race just starting

Dalton Daily Citizen

Just a few weeks ago, Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum stood at single digits in most polls, at fifth place or worse in the GOP field. But on Tuesday the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania finished second in the Iowa caucuses, a mere eight votes below former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

“I found that very exciting. I’m happy to see a guy who was so far down in the polls finish so well based on his perseverance, his tenacity and a truly grassroots strategy,” said Dalton attorney David Blackburn.

“And I really like his emphasis on the family being the basis of our society. It really is what holds society together,” said Blackburn, a former chairman of the Whitfield County Republican Party. “But I’m really grateful to all of the people who have thrown in their hats. They’ve all had some good ideas that are worth looking at, like (Texas Gov.) Rick Perry’s call for a part-time Congress. And Romney’s suggestion that if (Congress) can’t balance the budget they should all take a 10 percent cut in their budgets, their staffs and their salaries.”

Romney actually picked up fewer votes in the caucuses this year than he did four years ago when he finished second. In 2008, Romney got 30,021 votes (25.2 percent), compared to 30,015 (24.6 percent) on Tuesday.

“If Romney was hoping to come out of this with an aura of inevitability, he failed miserably,” said Dalton State College history professor Tom Veve. “With his organization and name recognition and with him basically working on this for the past four years, this has to be a disappointment.”

The next contest will come on Tuesday when New Hampshire voters go to the polls. A Jan. 1-2 Suffolk University/7News survey of likely Republican voters in that state found Romney with a seemingly commanding lead of 43 percent, followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul (who finished a close third in Iowa) at 16 percent, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (who did not campaign in Iowa) at 10 percent, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia at 9 percent and Santorum at 5 percent.

“Romney has to win New Hampshire and win it big. Any (margin) less than 10 points would hurt him badly,” Veve said. “That’s his back yard.”

Polls showed Santorum’s strength in Iowa was among evangelical Christian voters who are strongly concerned about social issues such as abortion and gay marriage. Veve said such voters will be a much smaller share of the New Hampshire electorate. He said Romney will benefit from having been endorsed on Wednesday by former Republican presidential candidate and U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

“McCain ran very well in New Hampshire, where Democrats can cross over and vote. With there being no Democratic primary, I think that sets up a good day for Romney. But he’s got to at least meet expectations, or it will be another chink in his armor,” Veve said.

Paul finished third with 26,219 votes (21.4 percent) in Iowa, more than doubling the 11,841 votes and 9.9 percent he got in 2008. Exit polls showed he led among independents and voters under the age of 30, getting almost half of each group.

But Veve said 20 percent or so may be Paul’s ceiling.

“I don’t know how Ron Paul increases his numbers. He has a good organization and some enthusiastic backers, but I don’t think he’s acceptable for a lot of Republicans. He’s a guy who left the Republican Party to run as a Libertarian and hasn’t committed to supporting the party’s nominee if he loses,” Veve said.

Many Georgians are keeping an eye on Gingrich. He was in Congress for 20 years and had been doing well in the polls for the first part of December. But his national poll numbers have collapsed and he finished a distant fourth in Iowa.

Veve said he expected Gingrich to remain in the race.

Whitfield County Board of Commissioners Chairman Mike Babb said he believes Gingrich will do well in Georgia’s presidential primary on Super Tuesday, March 6. But he said he doesn’t believe Gingrich can regain the momentum he had in December.

“He’ll still be a favorite son in Georgia. But I don’t think he’ll be a favorite elsewhere. He’s got too much baggage. He’s a brilliant person, but his time has come and gone,” Babb said.

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